“Businesses will be watching these talks very closely in the hope of divining some certainty on the direction of travel for global trade.
“There were some encouraging signs last weekend as the US agreed trade deals with Malaysia, Cambodia, Thailand and Vietnam, with a focus on tariffs and critical minerals.
“But a deal with China would be the major prize of this trip, given additional 100% duties are due to apply to Chinese goods exports to the US from Saturday morning.
“Hopefully China can reach terms with the US on export controls on rare earths and soyabean imports to avert these additional huge tariffs.
“Yale University Budget Lab’s recent update on the impact of tariffs on the US economy finds a persistent 0.4% reduction in GDP due to the impact of higher duties. This has big implications for businesses wherever they are based.
“Across the world, next Saturday will see the introduction of further section 232 US duties on imports of medium and heavy trucks and buses to the US. For the UK this means 25% duties on truck exports and 10% on buses.
“The US has justified these on the grounds of national security, given that 70% of domestic US freight is moved by truck or bus.
“Decisions on pharmaceutical and semiconductor tariffs are expected soon as well, which could have major implications for the UK economy.
“Many of our manufacturers will also be anxiously awaiting updates on whether US levies could be extended to more steel products, such as window and doorframes.
“With so many decions yet to be made, firms will continue to be wary, but an agreement between the world’s two biggest economies would go some way to settling nerves.”
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28.10.2025
